In nearby Cuba, we see it happen time after time. The Castro regime takes some action that the United States does not like such as mass arrests of political prisoners or sending mass waves of immigrants in order to use that manufactured crisis to their advantage. They then start releasing some prisoners or try swapping them. They then stop the flow of immigrants and rafters from reaching our shores. All in exchange for two things: recognition for engaging in “reasonable” diplomacy and for whatever concessions they can get from developed, democratic nations. In North Korea, the same strategy applies, but with higher stakes.

What we see in North Korea is a regime that escalation after escalation showed no signs of wanting to cooperate in earnest. There are two reasons for this. The first is that by not cooperating, they could further develop their weapons technologies, knowing full-well that neither the United States nor anyone else would take any serious action to stop them. The second reason is that only by generating a crisis serious enough does North Korea have anything that it can barter with. After that point, it can start de-escalating and try extracting concessions from the rest of the world. Make no mistake though, they want both: nuclear/missile capabilities and concessions.

This is why North Korea even accepted Bill Clinton’s visit and released the two American journalists, it gave Kim Jong Il international diplomatic capital by demonstrating that they are willing to negotiate. The mere fact that former President of the United States Bill Clinton visited one of the most impoverished nations in the world gave North Korea more legitimacy. Of course, I applaud his success in getting back our citizens. Unfortunately, right now, the more timid elements of the State Department and the Obama administration are seeing this as a sign that Kim Jong Il just wanted attention from the beginning, attention that Obama was focusing more on the Islamic world, Europe, Russia, and the economic crisis. This is the wrong lesson, but North Korea is wasting no time in exploiting this opening. Now, North Korea has expressed that it is willing to resume family reunifications and cross-border tourism once again, a far cry from the North Korea of just a little over a month ago that was firing missiles toward Hawaii in a show of strength.

On their side, North Korea points to continued US espionage, sanctions, and joint South Korean and US military exercises as the provocations that have led to this tense moment in relations. They now portray themselves as the good guys, reaching out to the US by granting amnesty for the two journalists, reaching out to South Korea by granting family reunification and tourism, turning around a ship that was suspected of transporting weapons to Myanmar, and we can expect their weapons tests to be suspended for the time being. It was a manufactured crisis that they are now trying to exploit by reducing tensions and trying to lure the United States to the negotiating table. The Obama administration’s naivete and the Left’s burning desire to engage with communists and enemies of America will all but guarantee another round of concessions. These concessions will be followed by a period of relative calm only to be followed by more North Korean belligerence. This is the unchanged cycle of things. The single, most pressing global security issue is the proliferation of nuclear weapons because of the possibility that they may land in the hands of terrorist organizations. Appeasement of a regime that is determined to make themselves a potent nuclear power will only make things worse. Clinton did it and they became nuclearized. Bush did it and they became even more nuclearized. What do you think will happen when Obama does it?

-AG