The problem is simple to describe but difficult to solve. How do we gain control of Al Qaeda’s last safe haven? Today, President Barack Obama, Pakistani president Asif Ali Zardari, and Afghan president Hamid Karzai will be meeting to discuss just that. The complicated part of this problem is that Al Qaeda’s safe haven is within Taliban-controlled areas in Pakistan and Afghanistan. While our forces can easily attack the Taliban in Afghanistan, the enemy, who operates without regard to borders or sovereignty, is hiding out in Pakistan where American troops cannot go. The only thing that we have been able to do is strike certain targets using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV’s). Now it’s Obama’s turn to take a crack at the Taliban.

Obama’s plan is simple:

- Send more troops and military advisers from the US and NATO to train the Afghan army
- Spend billions in military aid to strengthen the Afghan and Pakistani armed forces
- Spend billions in nonmilitary aid to help the Afghan and Pakistani people

The simplicity of this plan does not address the major issues in an active way. What it does do is put Pakistan and Afghanistan more directly in charge of this war, and therefore more directly in charge of the war on terror, which is a national security issue we cannot outsource. The simple rule is: the more you subsidize something the more of it you will get. So, if Pakistan and Afghanistan realizes that their fight against the Taliban is what keeps America’s wallets open, then there is no incentive to end the fight. Instead, Pakistan will just contain the Taliban, like they have been doing during all of these years. On the other hand, we need to understand that Pakistan either does not have the capability or will to destroy the Taliban and root out Al Qaeda.

Karzai and Zardari

Just spending more money will not be enough. What needs to be done, as I described in a previous post, is convince the Pakistani people that restoring stability is necessary and is only possible by defeating the extremists. It may require a new government. It may require a more robust diplomatic effort. For example, Obama needs to not only include the presidents of Pakistan and Afghanistan, but also India if he wants a lasting solution to instability in the region. Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, Hussain Haqqani has expressed that if the US would convince India to reduce military forces on the border, then Pakistan would redeploy its own troops to the fight against the Taliban. Instead, Obama has ignored India, despite the fact that the Pakistani government has admitted that this would be very helpful and it is in the best interest of world peace to reduce tensions along that border.

We cannot simply blame Obama’s inexperience, because he is currently surrounded by very experienced people, but the truth is that the administration needs to really look at all its options seriously. Add to the whole billions-in-aid plan, that has only extended this war, the fact that Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the US are either currently negotiating with some elements of the Taliban or is prepared to do so, and one realizes that Obama’s plan is as insufficient as his predecessor’s. Without a doubt, the problem of defeating the Taliban and Al Qaeda is not an easy one to solve and it requires involving all of the important players in Central and South Asia. So far, Obama seems more interested in spending taxpayer money on other people’s countries and figuring out the best way to withdraw instead of actually trying to win this war.

A “Responsible Withdrawal” policy should not replace a “Defeat Al Qaeda” policy.

-AG